Guante de terciopelo, puño de hierro: otro milagro que no fue

Los editores de Tobacco Control, del British Medical Journal (BMJ),  también han sido pillados manipulando los datos, en este caso respecto a la mortalidad y admisiones hospitalarias por infarto de miocardio tras la prohibición de fumar impuesta en la ciudad de  Sao Paulo, Brasil en 2009.
Como podéis ver en el gráfico (hecho con los datos que maneja el propio British Medical Journal), en efecto hay una reducción del número de muertes por ataque al corazón en los primeros meses tras la prohibición del 2009 (línea roja). Pero poco después, las cifras se disparan.
Otro tanto ocurre con las admisiones hospitalarias:
Desde Tobacco Control se informó de un espectacular descenso en su nuevo estudio de noviembre 2016, pero la revisión de sus propios datos contradice sus propias conclusiones.
Resulta cuando menos extraño que en  Tobacco Control nadie se diese cuenta de la realidad que reflejaban los datos, tan opuesta a lo publicado por ellos. Extraño y sospechoso.
Quizás es por eso que ya no desean debatir nada con nadie salvo en su propio foro, donde pueden borrar críticas inconvenientes.


GUANTE DE TERCIOPELO, PUÑO DE HIERRO

Thursday, 1 December 2016

 Brazilian smoking ban miracle

 This execrable study didn’t get any media attention and when I saw it tweeted by Tobacco
Control magazine I didn’t even bother reading the abstract, so bored am I of fraudulent
smoking ban miracles.

Hospital admissions & mortality rate for myocardial infarction reduced following

smoking ban in Sao Paolo

http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/cgi/content/long/tobaccocontrol-2016-053261v1 

Decrease in mortality rate and hospital admissions for

acute myocardial infarction after the…

Background Smoking restriction laws have spread worldwide during the last decade.

Previous studies have shown a decline in the community rates of myocardial

infarction after enactment of these laws….

tobaccocontrol.bmj.com

Anyone who’s followed these scams over the last twelve years knows what to expect.

Typically, the activist-researchers take heart attack figures from before and after a
smoking ban, create a counterfactual that suits their purpose and then claim that there
were fewer heart attacks than there would have been without a smoking ban. It helps if heart
attacks are already in decline (they often are).

That’s why I didn’t read the study. I thought I’d seen it all before. But my interest was

piqued by Michael Siegel who blogged about it yesterday. The authors attempted the
method described above but were faced with the awkward fact that the heart attack rate
absolutely skyrocketed after Sao Paolo introduced its smoking ban in early August 2009.

The authors helpfully provide all the numbers in the study – for this a crime carried out in

plain sight – and I have graphed them below. The red line shows the date of the smoking
ban.

You can see the number of deaths from myocardial infarction decline after September, but

you can see the same seasonal trend in previous years with a fall at the end of the year and
a rise at the start of the next. Early in 2010, it rises sharply – much more sharply than in
previous years – and stays high for the rest of the period covered. Unless the population of
Sao Paulo increased by half at the start of 2010, this is not a decline in the heart attack
rate.

Before the ban, the number of deaths hardly ever exceeded 600 per month and was often

below 500. Within a few months of the ban, there were never fewer than 700 deaths per
month.

In the bizarro world of Tobacco Control, this shows that the ‘mortality rate for myocardial

infarction reduced following the smoking ban in Sao Paulo’.

Things are not much better if you look at hospital admissions for heart attacks. There is a

year-on-year increase almost every month after the smoking ban…

These inconvenient facts would have deterred lesser mortals, but our intrepid researchers

pressed on regardless, making so many unexplained adjustments to the data that they
were able to conclude their study as follows:

Mortality rate and hospital admission rate for myocardial infarction decreased

after the comprehensive smoking ban law in Sao Paulo city.

And so history is re-written. It can join the growing list of ‘public health’ facts that are not

facts, such as ‘minimum pricing reduced alcohol-related deaths in British Colombia by a
third’ or ‘Rotten teeth in toddlers are at crisis level’ or ‘Sugar tax reduced soda sales by 12
per cent in Mexico’. Or, indeed, ‘Scottish smoking ban reduced heart attacks by 17 per
cent’.

It’s not that these guys have failed to prove cause and effect. There is no effect to find a

cause for. The campaigners have created their own fantasy land where the facts are
whatever they want them to be and words mean whatever they want them to mean.

También te puede interesar:

New Study Shows the Blatant Bias in Modern-Day Tobacco Control Research

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